Short blog to make a point.
According to the USC Dornsife/L.A. Times daily tracking poll, on July 17th,the day before the Republican convention, Hillary Clinton had 42.9% of the vote to Donald Trump’s 42.2%. As of yesterday, Donald Trump leads in this poll, 45.4% – 41.3%.
Can we agree that there is a Trump bump here?
And this is not the only poll showing it either. Read the following excerpt from an article at CNN, and see:
Donald Trump comes out of his convention ahead of Hillary Clinton in the race for the White House, topping her 44% to 39% in a four-way matchup including Gary Johnson (9%) and Jill Stein (3%) and by three points in a two-way head-to-head, 48% to 45%. That latter finding represents a 6-point convention bounce for Trump, which are traditionally measured in two-way matchups.
There hasn’t been a significant post-convention bounce in CNN’s polling since 2000. That year Al Gore and George W. Bush both boosted their numbers by an identical 8 points post-convention before ultimately battling all the way to the Supreme Court.
These data, of course, can change quickly. Maybe Hillary Clinton will get a similar bump from the Democrat convention this week and jump right back into the lead.
But, somehow, with those emails hanging over her, and the likelihood of major protests against Ms. Clinton (from the left, not the right) both outside of the convention hall and in it as well, I doubt that will happen.
We’ll see….
