WAS THE FOX NEWS POLL BIASED?

A poll commissioned by Fox News was released this week, and got a huge amount of coverage – presumably because it showed that 51% of the country wants President Bush impeached.

Here is what RNC Chair Ronna Romney McDaniels  (who no longer seems to use her unmarried name Рmaybe out of deference to Trump-hating daddy Mitt) tweeted about it:

Ronna McDaniel

@GOPChairwoman

The Fox News poll is wrong, just like their final poll in 2016 (had Hillary winning by 4) was wrong.

A staggering 48% of those polled on this bogus impeachment charade were Democrats.

Our internal polling shows voters, particularly Independents, oppose this sham!

Is she right?

Well, yes, she is right about Fox News’s final poll in 2016.

And, yes, she’s right about the composition of this latest poll, in the sense that 48% of the sample says it is more likely to vote in the Democrat primary compared to 34% in the Republican primary…

…which means that, while the intention to vote in one or another party’s primary is not a clean reading of party affiliation, it is pretty convincing evidence that this poll, whether by accident or design, skews toward Democrats.

Looking specifically at party affiliation, the poll, which you can read for yourself by clicking here, is comprised of 48% Democrats, 40% Republicans and 12% independents – which is far, far from reality.

Illustratively, Gallup’s most recent polling, from less than a month ago, shows Democrats at 31% nationwide, Republicans at 29% and Independents at 38%.¬† And this relationship has obtained, both in Gallup and other polls, for years.

But no matter how you slice it, the data show that a lot of people want President Trump impeached; hardly a surprise, given that media have provided a tidal wave of pro-impeachment coverage for the past month, but true nonetheless.

However, before you make too much of this, it might be good to remember that when media were pushing the collusion obstruction story, polls showed an upsurge of anti-Trump fervor for that reason too.

It seems to me, therefore, that this is more a demonstration of media’s ability to move public opinion than any solidly held feeling about Trump or impeachment.

But, as with all things, time will tell.

To be continued over the next weeks and months.

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