Michael Corleone: I saw a strange thing today. Some rebels were being arrested. One of them pulled the pin on a grenade. He took himself and the captain of the command with him. Now, soldiers are paid to fight; the rebels aren’t.

Hyman Roth: What does that tell you?

Michael Corleone: They could win.

The above dialogue, from Godfather 2 (which I thought was at least the equal of The Godfather – both masterpieces) came to mind as I read the latest in a series of election predictions assuring me that, although Republicans will probably hang onto the senate, the house is lost.

I remembered a strange thing from two years ago.  A Democrat candidate was sure to be elected.  Just about all the polls said so.  She was running against a loudmouthed egomaniac with no political experience who, despite his personal wealth, spent half as much money on his campaign as the Democrat candidate did.

And he won in an electoral landslide.

I wondered about how many people the political polls must have missed, and/or how many people, mindful of the attacks visited on anyone who dared to depart from the PC side of things probably would not tell a pollster his/her true intentions.

And what did it tell me?

They could win.

That’s not a prediction, I don’t make them.  But it’s a good reason to have a logical level of expectation.

Next week at this time, we’ll know for sure.

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