From Felix Salmon’s article at axios.com – which ain’t what you’d call pro-Trump territory – we have these excerpts:
Wall Street: Recession is over
U.S. economic activity fell more sharply in the second quarter of this year than during any other quarter in history. It’s also going to grow more sharply in the third quarter of this year than during any other quarter in history.
- The recession is over, according to Wall Street, with current forecasts showing sustained economic growth through 2021 and beyond.
- In June, when coronavirus cases were declining quite quickly, the Fed expected that we would end the year with unemployment at 9.3%, and saw the economy shrinking by 6.5%.
- Today, with coronavirus deaths still at their June levels, the Fed is much more optimistic. It sees 2020 ending with unemployment at 7.6% and an economy that has shrunk by just 3.7%. That’s still terrible, of course, for workers who are out of a job and businesses that are fighting for survival.
By the numbers: The difference is huge — almost 3 million extra jobs, and more than $600 billion in economic activity, over and above what the Fed expected just three months ago.
Wall Street has seen a similar turnaround in growth expectations. Quarterly GDP growth is measured on an annualized basis. On that basis, economic forecasters in April expected the third quarter to see a bounceback on the order of 13%.
- By June, their forecast had improved to 18%. Now, they expect third-quarter GDP to grow at an astonishing 25.2% rate.
How’s that for good news – especially in the face of what was initially being forecast?
Does that mean President Trump’s policies to address the COVID-19 are working? It is hard to say otherwise…
…just as these data make it hard to take Joe Biden’s “he’s bungled this every step of the way” commentary seriously.
But you can bet he’ll continue to say it anyway. The issue, therefore, is twofold:
- Will media make these huge gains known to the general public?
- How many votes will they move to Trump; enough to secure his re-election?
Stay tuned for the answer. We’ll have it in less than a month and a half.