THE BIDEN ANNOUNCEMENT BUMP

Did Joe Biden get a bump in the polls when he announced his candidacy for President?

If the poll conducted by SSRS research and commissioned by CNN is any indication, the answer is a pretty solid yes.

Keeping in mind that this question was asked exclusively of registered Democrats and Democrat-leaning independents, and the sample size is relatively small (a little over 400), here are the top five from SSRS’s poll, conducted March 14 – 17th:

Joe Biden ……………  28%

Bernie Sanders…….  19%

Beto O’Rourke…..…  13%

Kamala Harris……..  12%

Elizabeth Warren….    7%

And the new poll, conducted April 25-28th (top 6)?

Joe Biden ……………  39%

Bernie Sanders…….  15%

Elizabeth Warren….    8%

Peter Buttigieg…….    7%

Beto O’Rourke…..…    6%

Kamala Harris……..     5%

As you can see, Biden – presumably on the strength of media coverage during his “I’m about to decide” and “I’ve decided” phases, has jumped to a very large lead.

On the plus side, strong upward movement in the polls, obviously, is very good news.

On the minus side, however, this is one small sample-size poll, taken almost a year before the first primaries, and – as we see every four years – polls taken this early have a funny habit of changing dramatically as time goes on.

That is not to say Biden will lose his lead.  Sometimes candidates start ahead and stay there.  It is, however, a reminder that, especially in a crowded field of candidates, it rarely happens.

As a reference point, look at last month’s media darling, Robert Frances “Beto” O’Rourke, and Kamala Harris, both of whom have dropped by more than half (O’Rourke from 13% to 6%, Harris from 12% to 5%).  Then consider the newest media favorite, Peter Buttigieg, who has gone from virtual non-existence to 7%.

Where will things fall in the next poll?  Dunno.

What will the fallout be from the revelations about poll leaders which their intra-party opponents are going to nail them with in an effort to cut those numbers down to size?  Dunno.

Will Joe Biden, because he is now the big leader, be subjected to the brunt of these revelations in the near future?  Yep.

To paraphrase Bette Davis’s iconic line in the classic movie, “All About Eve”:

“Fasten your seat belts, it’s going to be a bumpy night primary season.” 

1 Comment

  • Still doubt the validity of polls Sir. Yes it is a driving and hazardous force in our generation. They only figuratively represent the folks who participated. (You and I not included most certainly) I am convinced the ultimate objective is to tally the votes for elections base exclusively on polling-samples down the road. The sooner that happens the sooner we Americans become another commodity to be dealt with. Socialism versus Puppeteering? This American prefers constitutional representation as defined since 1787!

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *