THE BERNIE PROBLEM (CONT.)

Does the Democrat Party really want a 78 year old socialist White guy from a small state – not to mention being Jewish (sort of) – as its standard-bearer for 2020?

We’ve talked about this before.  And, as before, the answer, almost certainly, is a resounding no…

…which leads us to the Des Moines Register’s latest polling among caucus-goers in Iowa (the “primary is not among the general public, only via caucuses).

And what does it show?  From Nick Coltrain’s article, we have this:

For the first time in his two-cycle pursuit of the Democratic presidential nomination — and at about the best time for such a peak — U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders leads the Des Moines Register/CNN/Mediacom Iowa Poll.

The senator from Vermont is the top choice of 20% of likely Democratic caucusgoers, according to the poll by Selzer & Co. That places him 3 percentage points ahead of Elizabeth Warren, 4 points ahead of Pete Buttigieg and 5 points ahead of Joe Biden. No other candidate has double-digit support.

This poll also brings his highest favorability rating since June — 66% of likely Democratic caucusgoers have favorable feelings toward him, versus 29% with unfavorable feelings. That’s an 11-point increase in net favorability since the November Iowa Poll.

He keeps his locked-in, enthusiastic base of support — a clear advantage over the other leading candidates: 49% of his supporters say they’re extremely enthusiastic to caucus for him — 17 percentage points higher than the share for his closest rival, Warren.

Let’s play a quick game of what-if.

What if  Sanders wins the Iowa primary on February 3?

What if the combination of his momentum from Iowa and his “favorite son” cachet with Democrat voters in Vermont’s neighboring state of New Hampshire, propels him to a February 11th primary victory there as well?

Does this generate a groundswell of support in the next states, which keeps him at or near the top in the next two primary states of Nevada (Feb. 22) and South Carolina (Feb. 29)?

And, if so, where does it put him on March 3 – so-called “Super Tuesday” – with 14 states in play?

If the answer is that it generates a strong showing, what does that do to the prospects for Joe Biden?

If Democrats are worried about a Sanders candidacy, it’s pretty obvious that this scenario gives them a very, very good reason to stay that way.

In an earlier blog, I speculated that Nancy Pelosi may have held up presenting the senate with articles of impeachment for the purpose of requiring Sanders (and four other U.S. Senators, including Elizabeth Warren) to stay in Washington for the trial, while Biden – moderate compared to Sanders and Warren, with significantly more Black support, thus probably seen as the most electable of the three – is free to campaign every day.

This does nothing to diminish that possibility, does it?

Stay tuned for further events.  I promise you won’t be bored.

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