On paper, Senator Joe Manchin (D-WV) has an excellent chance of winning re-election this year.  Despite the fact that Donald Trump is highly popular in West Virginia, Manchin is too, and recent polls show him ahead of his Republican opponent, West Virginia Attorney General Patrick Morrissey.

But Mr. Manchin has a Brett Kavanaugh problem.  A big one.

The problem is that Democrats, who expect and demand that Manchin vote against confirming Judge Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court, are telling him to ignore the following just-released poll data:

  • Overall, West Virginia voters want Brett Kavanaugh confirmed with a margin of 58% – 28%
  • This includes the majority of independent voters with a margin of 59% – 26%
  • This includes the majority of women voters with a margin of 52% – 35%

In reading the above, please be advised that the study these data came from was commissioned by a conservative group, Judicial Crisis Network, and performed by Public Opinion Strategies, a Republican-owned research outfit.  As such, its results should be taken with a grain- maybe a shaker-full- of salt.

But what if the above data are accurate?  For that matter, what if, though exaggerated, they are anywhere near accurate?  Can Joe Manchin take the risk of voting “nay” on Kavanaugh and losing his senate seat over it?  Would you?

This is a problem for him.  A big one…

…unless Democrats can stall a vote past election day – which, obviously, is exactly what they are intending to do.

If the vote does occur, however, Joe Manchin has a potentially career-ending decision to make.

I wonder how he’ll handle it.

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