Hillary Clinton won the South Carolina primary yesterday, by a massive 48% over Bernie Sanders. Final results had Ms. Clinton at 73.5% to Bernie Sanders\’ 26%.
A great many media venues are writing as though this effectively ends the Sanders campaign. Maybe it does. But before you take that to the bank, please remember the following…which, in my scanning of media accounts, is barely evident:
-It was a virtually foregone conclusion that Clinton would win this state….so much so that Sanders conceded it by not campaigning there a week ago.
-Black voters, who are solidly behind Hillary Clinton (for reasons which are more than a little difficult to fathom), comprise almost 30% of the South Carolina population…..
-….but exit polling shows that about Black voters accounted for a huge 62% of the primary voting…Black women alone comprised 40%.
I do not know if this means Black voters, especially Black women, came out for Ms. Clinton in droves, White voters just didn\’t bother, or a combination thereof (which is probably the best bet), but it certainly makes clear why Hillary Clinton won by so much.
Putting these factors together, and Hillary Clinton\’s runaway victory margin becomes more understandable. But putting them together also explains why South Carolina may well be an anomaly, and why – unless Democrat primary voters are sold on an “it\’s all over” meme, this race still has a long way to go.
It won\’t take long to find out: in the next 7 days, 19 states will have their primaries: Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado, Georgia, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, Virginia, Wyoming, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine and Nebraska,.
By this time next week, Hillary Clinton may well be the no-doubt-about-it candidate – at least on the basis of primary wins (there are other factors, such as the email scandal and her health, that have nothing to do with whether she wins over Bernie Sanders). If I were betting, my money would be on Ms. Clinton doing just that.
But I\’ll wait the week, note the results, and then know for sure. I suggest you do the same.