…this might be of more than passing interest.
Excerpted from Paul Mirengoff’s article at powerlineblog.com:
Republicans have a shot at, but aren’t likely to gain, seats in traditionally Blue states carried by Trump — Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. Republicans have a very good shot at seats in Red States carried by Trump — Missouri, Indiana, West Virginia, Montana, and North Dakota. And of the two swing states carried by Trump, Republicans have a fair shot at unseating the Democratic incumbent in Wisconsin, but not in Florida.
This, at least, is the outlook presented by Axios, based on Axios/Survey Monkey polling of the ten states. Axios finds that if the election were held today, Democrats would lose in Missouri, Indiana, West Virginia, Montana, and North Dakota. Only North Dakota would likely be very close. In the other four states, the Democrat trails by no fewer than 7 points.
The article – which (as always) I urge you to read in its entirety, points out that the assesessment of senatorial prospects for each party has changed back and forth over the months, and certainly has the capacity to change again in the future. Probably multiple times.
But the point to be made here is that, self-impressed political pundits who talk with airs of knowledgeability aside, no one really knows what is going to happen this November. Nor does anyone know what unknown factors will become prominent elements of the election between now and election day.
Here’s some good advice: assume nothing, and wait until the votes are counted.