A NEW POLL THAT – I HOPE – MAKES AN IMPORTANT POINT ABOUT POLLING

About four weeks ago, the Hill-HarrisX poll – conducted June 1 to 4 – showed Joe Biden jumping out to a double digit lead over President Trump, 47% to 37%.

Not at all surprisingly, media made a very big deal out of it, and of several other polls showing similarly good news for Biden (one of them had him in front by 14%).

Will they make as big a deal out of the fact that the just-released results of this same poll, four weeks later, show Biden”s lead dropping by more than half, down to 43% – 39%?

Somehow I doubt it.

My point here is not to suggest that this is good news for Trump any more than the June 1-4 results were bad news for him.

As I have pointed out more times than I care to remember, June polling doesn’t mean a thing.  And national polling doesn’t mean a thing no matter when it takes place, since we have an electoral system in which individual state votes count, not the national total.

My point here is to show, again, that people shouldn’t make a big deal out of each new political poll…

…and that, if I am correct about the lesser amount of media attention this particular new poll generates, a great many of our media venues report polling news differently, depending how the results turn out.

1 Comment

  • This citizen maintains “Lies, Damn Lies and Statistics” written by Michael Wheeler 1976. About the time frame when I recognized Bo-jive and belligerence emerging in America. Not much of an improvement 44 years later!

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